Expectations: Simma Down

A week ago today, one of the few mass media bloggers who covers Michigan that I like, decided to post this article titled, "Why Brady Hoke needs to win in year 1". This man, is Adam Rittenberg. Before I even began the read, I instantly went into face palm mode...

Articles like these, are what get our frugal Michigan minds running with expectations and the memories of glory days of yester yore. Are we really going to allow ourselves to get stuck in that trap again? For all of the things Brady Hoke has on his side compared to Rich Rodriguez, one thing they should not be allowed to have in common is lofty expectations of instantly turning the program around, the instant time they walk through the door.

If Michigan doesn't win big in year 1, Rittenberg seems ready to put Hoke on the proverbial hot seat by year 2.

If Michigan doesn't make a big jump this fall, it could have a tough time doing so in 2012. The Wolverines could be a better team, a more well-adjusted team, and not have the record to show for it.

Two middling seasons would mean two more years of Michigan lingering outside the upper crust. Questions about whether or not Hoke can restore Michigan among the Big Ten's elite likely would surface.

Is this like Rich Rodriguez's first year where, we as fans just forget our deficiencies and expect greatness right away? I don't think there needs to be any reminder of where our defense is at and I look at the defense like I did the 2008 offense. A unit that is inexperienced, young, and needs a substantial amount of proper coaching.

It would be a disservice to Hoke, his staff, recruiting, and the players if by year 2, the papers are running articles about him pleading for patience among all ye faithful... I am not going to exhaust all the problems that faced RR when he came here or while he was here, because it was more than impatient fans that caused his demise. However, we all know that wins could have cured all. I just hope that the patience RR did not get from the administration is forwarded to Hoke, and from Brandon's comments, that appears to be the case...

"Everybody always wants to know wins and losses and 'How are they gonna be?'" Brandon said. "I've been around this game long enough to know that's a dangerous trap. So much depends on injuries. We're implementing a new system, so how fast can our players adapt to a completely new system on both sides of the ball? How big of a step-change improvement will you see among some of those young players who really struggled last year?

"There's just too many unknowns to quantify how we're going to be on the field this year."

I wonder if this was his process when evaluating RR's tenure here at Michigan. It doesn't appear that was the case, but he's got HIS GUY in there now and lets hope the fan base follows suit with this patient approach.

I ask myself and other Michigan faithful what if, we go 7-5 or 6-6 this season? More often than not, the response I get, is something along the lines of "disappointing". My rebuttal is always, what if we are actually competitive in our losses this year? See, my rule of thought, is there is a massive difference between 7-5 and being competitive vs. 7-5 and getting blown out by every quality team on your schedule. There's a difference between losing nail biters and letting Wisconsin run 99.9% of the time en route to getting dismantled at home.

As a die-hard homer fan it has taken the 3 years in the shitter, that it seems like the program has been stuck in, to really appreciate what we had and where we are at. It seems like we as a fan base, have been plagued by our previous success these last 3 years and the "AHHHH WE ARE MICHIGAN!!!" mentality has allowed us to skew rationality and cause lofty expectations. Here's a bit from the guys at Maize and Blue Nation from 2009...

On 2008 expectations...

I'll be the first to admit that I was a little too hopeful for an 8-win season in 2008. But looking at the schedule and taking time to really think about our opponents, I thought 8 wins could be possible. If we got off on the right foot and could keep injuries down...we might get there.

And the 2009 expectations came out too...

So there you have it...we will end the season with 8 wins and 4 losses. And for those keeping score at home, 5-3 in the Big Ten. We'll make a bowl game. Likely a pre-New Year's Day bowl. Maybe the Alamo Bowl or something along those lines.

Optimistic after an atrocious 3-9 season, no? I couldn't find much in the realm of quoted season predictions from 2008 that wasn't of the bleacher report substance, but for 2009 only 1 member of the Michigan rivals staff had us pegged for anything less than a 7 win season. Again after what I saw in 2008, those especially in retrospect were lofty expectations.

Now, Brady Hoke comes into a situation where he's getting 18 starters back. He's got an offensive coordinator who will implement his offense, but not force a square peg in to a round hole and a defensive coordinator who by all accounts seems to be on the same page. He's a Michigan guy, which should buy him some time. I just urge fans on the side of caution with this upcoming season. If we don't immediately, look like the 97 team that many of us want to see, can we please keep everything in perspective, and stay objective? I am going to shove my foot in my mouth (only a little bit though) when I release my season predictions, but I am a believer in Hoke and what he's doing with the program and would hate to see questions about his ability to turn around the program surface so early in his tenure.

So, lets stay calm, and follow our team faithfully this season, and not haunt Hoke with expectations that were always over the head of our previous coach. As always, Go Blue.

All Your Recruits Are Belong To Us

Sorry for the delay in posting, however over the weekend my car turned into this...


Not my car exactly, but you get the picture

 So real life has been occupying my time since Saturday. Let me tell you what, relying on your friends to get to and from places, makes me feel like I have an automobile diaper on that needs to be changed twice a day. I blame the invention of cell phones on this one. So anyways, on to important things like, 17-18 year old kids that don't play for Michigan yet.

Last week in my intro to Brad Hoke piece I briefly mentioned the wonders Brady and his staff have been able to work on the recruiting trail, without coaching a game yet. To recap, this class currently has 19/20ish commits with one being Kentucky S Jeremy Clark who is accepting a greyshirt offer from the Wolverines. For those of you that don't know, it means that Jeremy will spend his freshman season at Michigan minus a scholarship gaining one during his sophmore campaign. He does have full scholarship offers from other schools so to choose to come and do this at Michigan, I believe speaks volumes about the ability of the coaching staff to sell kids on Michigan.

So far many of the experts seem to be in agreement that this class is shaping up to be one of the best in the nation by National Signing Day...

Scout's Allen Trieu...

The long and the short of it is that new head coach Brady Hoke and his staff have come in, been very aggressive on the recruiting trail and had a lot of success so far in the 2012 class. The Wolverines, are actually nearing completion with this class, with only a handful of spots remaining. It has been a defensive heavy class, but we expect more offense in the remaining spots.

MaxPreps, which has Michigan's class rated #1 in the country ...

Michigan fans are simply delighted with the success of Brady Hoke on the recruiting trail, culminating with Kyle Kalis' flip to the Wolverines. Defensively and on the offensive line, this class is outstanding. Add another premium offensive skill player, like former Ohio State commit Bri'onte Dunn, and this class would get even stronger.

ESPN, while not as high as MaxPreps, currently has Michigan 5th overall behind Texas, Florida State, Florida, and Alabama. Also,  Rivals also just released their rankings where they have Michigan rated 3rd behind Florida State and Texas.

So who composes this fantastic class Michigan has compiled so far, say you? The class...

Name	Position	State	Rivals	ESPN	Scout	24/7
Kyle Kalis	OL	OH	4	4	5	4
Royce Jenkins-Stone	LB	MI	4	4	4	4
James Ross	LB	MI	4	4	4	4
Joe Bolden	LB	OH	4	4	4	4
Terry Richardson	CB	MI	4	4	4	4
Erik Magnuson	OL	CA	4	4	4	4
Jarrod Wilson	S	OH	4	4	4	4
Tom Strobel	DE	OH	4	3	4	4
Pharaoh Brown	DE	OH	4	3	3	4
Blake Bars	OL	TN	4	3	3	3
Devin Funchess	TE	MI	3	4	4	4
Mario Ojemudia	DE	MI	3	4	4	3
Kaleb Ringer	LB	OH	3	3	4	3
Matt Godin	DE	MI	3	3	3	4
Ben Braden	OL	MI	3	3	3	3
Anthony Standifer	CB	IL	3	3	3	3
Caleb Stacey	OL	OH	3	3	3	3
Allen Gant	S	OH	3	3	3	3
AJ Williams	TE	OH	3	3	3	3

A few things that immediately stick out is the number of Ohio natives in this class (9). There are 9 lineman, along both lines combined in this class. This is also a very defensive heavy class with 12, 13 if you count Clark, defensive players in the fold and a few more still in the mix to become Wolverines.

Also, if you're wanting to dig a little deeper, you'd see that the Michigan staff is doing one heck of a job of not only invading Ohio, but also securing down the top recruits in the state. They've gained commitments from 7 of the top 12 players in the state and lead or are in the top group for, 3 more of the top 12 in, Farmington Hills WR Aaron Burbridge, Flint DT Danny Obrien, and Southfield TE Ron Thompson. I think the staff is going to  take a WR whether or not it's Burbridge, but if he can qualify I expect him to be a Wolverine. Also O'brien is on the record of saying that the staff told him they were only taking one more DT in this class, but with MO DT Ondre Pipkins in the mix and high on Michigan, I see the staff making room for 2 DT's if they both want to come to Ann Arbor.

Border? What stinking border?
While, the state of Michigan does have a very solid group of recruits to choose from this year, that has not always been the norm, compared to states like Ohio. So to be able to get into Ohio and steal away big time recruits has to be of importance if Michigan wants to get back to competing with the likes of Ohio. Hoke has made an emphasis of this and with the impendnig NCAA infractions and media scuttlebutt surrounding the OSU program it seems, at least for the time being, the staff has been able to do that. The big name of the Ohio group was, OL Kyle Kalis, who early in his commitment was more than solid to the Buckeyes.

As of June 8th, Kalis was still committed to Ohio and had this to say about his recuitment to MGoBlog's own Tom VanHaaren...

I'm still listening to coaches. I want to go to Ohio State, but I want to know that Coach Fickell is going to be my head coach when I'm there, and if we don't have more than a two year bowl ban.

A short month later on July 10th, Kalis was a Wolverine where he called Brady Hoke from the block M of stadium to tell him he was a Wolverine, he then had this to say about his recruitment to ESPN.
On Not going to OSU...

"I can't go there (Ohio State) and take penalties for something I never did," Kalis told ESPN.com on Monday. "Ohio State is a great program. I'm just not sure how long it will take them to recover. I want a solid, grounded coaching staff with a safe environment. Where there aren't such tough questions."

On Michigan and the Ohio border...

"He is the type of guy I want to play for," Kalis said. "(Hoke) has an incredible amount of passion. I believe the Michigan-Ohio border is now open. I think you're going to see eight or nine guys from the state of Ohio going over to Michigan this year."

Well, we've got that number of 9 so lets hope that border stays open and we can snag a couple more, maybe RB Bri'onte Dunn? I find that highly unlikely at this point with the NCAA curling up into a ball when it came time to punish Ohio for their tomfoolery (more on this to come).

So where do we go from here?
DT: Michigan is thin at DT and needs to get at least one. I've already mentioned Danny Obrien's comments and like I mentioned if both want to commit I believe the staff makes room and something in my gut tells me that both Ondre and Danny will commit to play for the Wolverines by NSD (national signing day).

Quarterback: I am not in the group that believes Michigan needs a quarterback in this class. They have already gained a commitment from 2013 prospect Shane Morris who by all accounts is shaping up to be one of the top prospects in the country. If Michigan can fill positions of need and gain a buffer qb to be between Gardner and Morris than take one, if not, I won't be losing any sleep and I don't think you should either.

Hold the line: I expect Michigan to take one more offensive lineman in this class. Michigan is at a point where they can choose to be very selective with who they accept commitments from and with  5* Jordan Diamond, and other highly regardged recruits like Zach Bannder, Adam Bisnowaty, and Joshua Garnett in the mix they should be selective.

RB: Michigan has a stable of running backs on the roster already. This factor leads me to again believe Michigan will be very selective on who they accept a commitment from. I would expect only a top guy to get this spot in the class. We Michigan fans need to keep our fingers crossed on Bri'onte Dunn, because with Ohio getting off easy that's loookin less likely, also making our chances of landing a top tier back less likely as well.

WR: Michigan has offers out to some of the top talents in the nation at WR. Most likely in this class, if he can qualify, I think is Aaron Burbridge. But, also keep an eye on OH WR Dwayne Stanford who is teammates with 5* DE Adolphus Washington, who comes across as pretty high on Michigan and they could be a package deal. Some other potential suitors to keep an eye on, are IA WR Amara Darboh, CA WR Jordan Payton, and OH WR Monty Madaris.

Dude closest to going blue? OH DE Chris Wormley, has long been thought of as a Michigan lean. How soon who knows? Hopefully before the season. His commitment, I would expect to effect Adolphus Washington, as there are already 3 DE's in this class. But again, I would love to have both.

So that's kind of where we are at. My apologies for any scatterbrained thoughts. Now I can focus on up to date material, and I am also working on getting a resident buckeye post up as well from my college roomate. So next time you read something from me (hopefully tomorrow), it won't be something you knew 3 months ago. As always, Go Blue.

Out With New, In With The Oldish

Well This Was Fun Wasn't It?

It took 2 seasons, but last fall when Denard Robinson beat out Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner for the starting quarterback role, it was evident by game 1 that, Rich Rodriguez had found his guy to run the spread offense. All of the slot ninjas, quick nimble lineman, and quarterbacks that could run, seemed to be finally meshing. Through the first 6 games of the season Denard was the Heisman Trophy front runner (he finished 6th in final voting). Shoelace became the first player in NCAA history to rush and pass for more than 1,500 yds and set the Big Ten single season total offense record with 4,272 yards of total offense (2,570 yards passing and 1,702 yards rushing) and led the conference in rushing.  By the end of the season the offense statistically was one of the best in the country and one of the most exciting Michigan offenses to watch in memory.

Michigan 2010 Offense
Total Offense:	9th
Rushing Offense	13th (238.5 yds/gm)
Passing Offense	36th (250.2 yds/gm)
Scoring Offense	25th (32.6 pts/gm)

For all of its successes the spread seemed to have its down falls as Denard missed time in 10 of 12 games last season and the offense seemed stagnant against the better teams on the schedule.  The offense also seemed to flounder in the redzone ranking 92nd in scoring %. Personally, I think that statistic is somewhat not conducive of the circumstances. Our defense couldn't stop the JV girls powder puff team from getting in the end zone, forcing the offense to score on nearly every possession. Oh, and that field goal kicking thing? Uhh...


Thank you Barbrady, you're right I did not want to see that.



Well, after a 52-14 beat down by the hands of Mississippi State, Rich Rodriguez was gone and so was the spread. Brady Hoke brought in Al Borges to take the reigns of the offense. There were rumblings about whether or not Denard Robinson would stay... he did and here we are.



Al Borges is a journeyman offensive coordinator, with four schools under his belt in the last eleven years. The performance of his teams?

Al Borges Offenses	Team	Rush Off.	Pass Off.	Total Off.	Scoring Off
2001	CAL	87th	96th	77th	104th
2002	IU	93RD	84th	69th	95th
2003	IU	59th	101st	98th	114th
2004	AUBURN	29th	40th	25th	18th
2005	AUBURN	25th	70th	37th	30th
2006	AUBURN	47th	88th	76th	56th
2007	AUBURN	53rd	103rd	97th	84th
2009	SDSU	116th	30th	86th	85th
2010	SDSU	48th	12th	16th	19th

My reaction, very MEH... But, in this what have you done for me lately world we live in, the progress he was able to make at previously abysmal SDSU in just two seasons, is where I find my hope and encouragement. Borges was able to move the ball against quality teams last year when SDSU played TCU, Missouri, Utah, Air Force, and Navy.

Brian at MgoBlog had this to say about Borges.

Borges looks like just a guy by the numbers, and he's just a guy who seems like the worst possible fit with Denard. Jason Campbell ran more when he got to the NFL. Hopefully there's some more flexibility in this offense than it appears at first glance, otherwise it's a fourth straight year with a new, underclass starting quarterback.

Borges and Hoke both came in saying there would be an emphasis on establishing the run and running a more  pro-style/west coast, MANball type of offense. Think Lloyd Carr offense, but without that old man I need a diaper look, every time we drop back to pass. Borges likes to zing it around a little bit more. But, with a talent like the Denard the old adage, can't fit a square peg into a round hole seems to apply. It appears as after spring ball Borges is beginning to feel the same. In a recent Rivals article Borges dropped these bits on his plan.

 "What we're trying to do as we go is take the next step, understanding what we want in the offense, and his skills are going to be explored," said Borges. "We're probably going to run the quarterback more than I ever have because he is so talented we have to explore that option, but then develop other parts of his game. Because he wants to be a next level player, he's been very receptive."

And this about running out of the shotgun.

"We will be under center half the time and more in shotgun than we've ever been before, though we've always run a good degree of it. We ran 35 snaps in one game at San Diego State last year. It's not news for us. But there's a transition not just for Denard, but everybody."

You'll notice here in the spring game highlights that, the first play was out of shotgun and Denard was able to, well... be Denard.



 The rest of the time, made me maddeningly confused wondering, "is this that turn around for the defense we've been waiting for, or are we really going to be this bad on offense?" I think somewhere in between. What I find most encouraging is...

• The progression Denard was able to make from his freshman year to last, which leads me to believe he will put in the time and effort this summer to make the transition smoother.
• Al Borges I think clearly sees he has a talent he can't under use just to install his system. Something that plagued Rich Rodriguez early in tenure at Michigan.
• We have 9 starters returning offense. This is a veteran group that are no longer freshman and sophomores who are still working the squeak out of their voices. These are matured dudes who have had adequate time in the weight room.

Concerns?

• Who steps up at running back to make MANball work and keep the load off Denard? Many out there seem to believe that incoming freshman Thomas Rawles may be the dark horse in the running back race. Rawles was an under the radar recruit who would've been ranked higher had their not been questions about his ability to qualify.
• The offensive line is the least of my concern. From my time playing football I am under the distinct impression that moving from a zone scheme to a man blocking scheme isn't that difficult for a lineman. If you're blowing people up you're blowing people up. If that assumption is far and away inaccurate it could be a problem.
• Too many receivers not enough balls. With all of the slot ninjas on the team how do they become incorporated into this offense.

Expectations?

•  I expect to see an offense hovering somewhere around the 40 in the country. There's too much talent coming back on this team for me to believe we will take a drastic dip. If we struggle the first two games of the season to move the ball against two defenses we haven't had a recent problem against than, I may be putting my foot in my mouth sooner rather than later.
• I expect to not see a clear-cut back until the 3rd or 4th game of the season unless someone emerges from camp head and shoulders above the rest. My starting back prediction is... Michael Cox

The true tale of the story will be, if we aren't moving the ball well early in the season, how quickly will Borges and Hoke scrap all that is MANball and cater the offense to our skill set.  The hope and my belief is that we never get to that point. We will definitely see some "uhh ohhs" and "ohh EFFFFFF" plays along the way but nothing compared to 2008. The offense seems to have all bought in to the new system and I think we won't be last year but we won't be even close to 2008 either. At the end of the day we have the best smile in college football leading our offense and if this doesn't put your heart at ease, than I do not know what will.



Up next we get caught up on recruiting. As always, Go Blue.